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Ace Probabilities in Hold'em

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An Ace is the highest ranking card in Hold'em and can be played either high or low. This means that if you are dealt an Ace preflop, there is a good chance that you may currently hold the best hand. If you are all-in with an opponent and they do not have a pocket pair or a better ace, then you are the favorite to win the hand. However, you should be careful to not become overly attached to the hand when you are dealt an Ace, because there is a fair chance that you will lose a sizeable proportion of your stack if you get into a hand with another player that holds a better ace than you (e.g. A9 vs AQ).

The probability of being dealt an ace is: 15%

The tables below show the frequency of aces being dealt in different situations with varying numbers of players at the table:

Probability that a player is dealt an Ace

No. of Players

Percentage Odds

2 18%
3 40%
4 50%
5 59%
6 66%
7 73%
8 78%
9 83%
If you hold an Ace, probability that another player has an Ace

No. of Players

Percentage Odds

2 12%
3 23%
4 32%
5 41%
6 50%
7 57%
8 64%
9 69%
If you don't hold an Ace, probability another player has an Ace

No. of Players

Percentage Odds

2 16%
3 29%
4 41%
5 51%
6 60%
7 68%
8 74%
9 80%
 

As you can see from the tables, the likelihood of a player being dealt an ace increases with the number of players at the table. An interesting table is the table that shows the likelihood of another player holding an ace if you hold an ace yourself (top right). The table shows that there is a fairly high probability that another player at a 9-seater table holds an ace if you do as well. This means that we should be cautious when dealt weak aces and should fold them in early position. There is a chance that we were the only player at the table holding an ace, but we are saving ourselves more money in the long run for when we come up against another player with a better ace than ours. For more information on playing weak aces read our article on Rag Aces.

<Odds Charts

 
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