All In Match Up Odds

The table below shows the odds of each hand winning in typical all-in match ups in Texas Holdem. The percentage chance of winning assumes that both players are all-in and that all 5 community cards will be dealt to determine a winner. The table also assumes that there are no other players in the hand, although the results should be very similar.

All-in hands probability odds chart.

Typical Match Up Hand 1 Hand 2
Under Pair vs. Overcards Td Ts 57% 43% Ac Kh
Overpair vs. Pair Kc Ks 80% 20% 9d 9c
2 Overcards vs. 2 Undercards Ad Qc 63% 37% 5d 7h
Dominated Hand Ah Jd 79% 21% Jc Td
Very Dominated Hand Qs Qd 89% 11% Qh Js
Overcard vs. Dominated Kicker Ad 9h 29% 71% 9c 9s
Pair vs. 1 Overcard 8h 8d 69% 31% As 5c
1 Overcard vs. 2 Middle Cards Jc 4h 57% 43% 6h 8s

How to use the all in match-ups odds chart.

The table can be used to estimate your chances of winning in common all-in situations, however, the table does not highlight the exact probabilities for the certain match-ups in general.

For example: in the pair v overcards match-up, 2d 2s would be a 53% favourite against Ac Kh instead of being a slightly stronger favourite like Td Ts with a 57% chance of winning. The is due to other factors such as the increased probability that two overpairs will appear on the board creating a higher two-pair with a better kicker for the player holding Ac Kh.

All in match up odds evaluation.

As you can see from the table, some of the match-ups are closer than you might expect them to be. For example, if you have another player dominated with a hand like Ah Jd against Jc Td, your opponent will win the pot 1 time in 4. Therefore you should be careful not to become overly excited when cards like these are turned over in an all-in situation, because your opponent is not always as far behind as you think.

Another interesting all-in match up is the very common AK versus an under pair. The table shows that although the odds are fairly even, the under-pair will usually have the slight advantage.

This means that it is always better to be pushing all-in rather than calling an all-in with AK if necessary, because to call with AK against an under pair is a losing play in the long run. By pushing all-in with AK you give your opponent the opportunity to fold for fear of an overpair, which will improve your expectation in the long run.

Go back to the poker odds charts.

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